Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Kidnapping Incidents along the Abuja–Kaduna Expressway, Nigeria

Abstract

This study investigates the spatial and temporal distribution of kidnapping incidents along the Abuja–Kaduna expressway, Nigeria, from 2010 to 2021. Using primary and secondary data obtained from police records, field surveys, and GIS-based spatial analysis, the research identifies high-risk flashpoints and examines the temporal variations of kidnapping occurrences. Data were processed using ArcGIS 10.8 and SPSS 25.0 to perform spatial mapping, frequency distribution, and correlation analyses. Results revealed that kidnapping incidents have increased progressively within the decade, peaking between 2019 and 2021. Spatially, the most notorious flashpoints include Rijana, Katari, Jere, Maraban-Rido, and Goningora. Temporal analysis showed that most incidents occur between 6:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m., mainly on Fridays and Sundays. The findings demonstrate that geography, road network design, and inadequate police patrol coverage significantly influence the crime pattern. The study concludes that integrated spatial intelligence and community-driven security frameworks are essential for effective policing and crime prevention.